Most horse races are extremely difficult to handicap, despite what some wise guys could tell you. While it is correct that practically just about every race has one horse that is bet down to low odds and is so the favorite, it doesn't mean that 1 is a confident winner. No matter which horse you look at in a race, you will often acquire it is at about the appropriate odds when you figure in the take out and other variables.
What that signifies is that the odds reflect the actual chances of a horse winning if you figure in the amount of income taken out of the pools for the track and the state. It really is sort of depressing when you think about it for the reason that it tends to make it practically impossible to make a profit. Just about, that is. There are occasions when a horse will be bet down below its fair worth odds and when that happens, yet another horse ought to be at lucrative odds for the savvy handicapper.
These are the circumstances that exist. In most races, little if any likelihood of profit and no clear cut good bets, but as I said, in most races, but not all races. There are nonetheless times when one particular horse will have an undeniable benefit over the other horses that stands out so clearly that it tends to make it an hassle-free selection and an uncomplicated winner, if it runs true to form, that is.
I'm not talking about a horse with a speed benefit or a great deal more class than the other runners, even though that aids. I'm talking about a horse that fits the race model even though the rest do not. The race model is the operating style that wins that distinct sort and distance of race at that track. It is a style and the beaten lengths from the leader at the 1st and second calls that tells the tale.
In most races there will be several horses that fit that model and numerous others that come close. On best of that, there will be a number of running types that could win, but when in a while, if you pay attention to the track model, you'll locate a race where only one particular horse fits and fits so well it is a shoo-in to win. Don't believe it?
On January 19th, 2012 in the third race at Aqueduct, Unbridled Danger was just such a horse. The race was a mile and seventy yard event for 7500 claimers. The track model shows a robust speed bias, which means that horses with early speed have a distinct benefit. Searching at the field of 8 horses, only 1 had an early speed operating style with a complete seven speed points, indicating a lot of early foot. All the other runners showed presser styles or late operating styles.
Unbridled Danger went to the front as soon as the gate opened and by no means looked back, posting an effortless victory at much better than even odds when by no means getting challenged on the lead. For those who watched the race, it was apparent that Unbridled Danger was far far better than the rest, mostly for the reason that the others had been all so far behind and could not make up the ground on a speed favoring track.
The track model showed that the average beaten lengths of winners was 1.7 lengths at the half mile call. Unbridled Danger was a complete 4 lengths in front. For handicappers who take the time to familiarize themselves with the track model for every single kind of race and then use it, once in a though, an easy winner comes along.
